The year 2022 marked a truly historic bust for the U.S. bond market. The question now is whether 2023 will produce any kind of meaningful rebound. ... Investors were forced to repeatedly lift their expectations for how high the Federal Reserve would raise short-term interest rates to combat the worst inflation in decades. The sharp drop in bond prices was in many ways the dominant force in financial markets, driving borrowing costs higher and contributing to double-digit losses for stocks. Despite bonds’ 2022 drubbing and the criticism that the Fed has come under for being slow to act on inflation, investors, [...]

Big banks are predicting that an economic downturn is fast approaching. More than two-thirds of the economists at 23 large financial institutions that do business directly with the Federal Reserve are betting the U.S. will have a recession in 2023. Two others are predicting a recession in 2024. The firms... cite a number of red flags: Americans are spending down their pandemic savings. The housing market is in decline, and banks are tightening their lending standards. ... The main culprit is the Federal Reserve, economists said, which has been raising rates for months to try to slow the economy and curb [...]