Even with turmoil in the banking industry and uncertainty ahead, the Federal Reserve likely will approve a quarter percentage point interest rate increase next week, according to market pricing and many Wall Street experts. Rate expectations have been on a rapidly swinging pendulum over the past two weeks, varying from a half-point hike to holding the line and even at one point some talk that the Fed could cut. However, a consensus has emerged that Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow central bankers will want to signal that while they are attuned to the financial sector upheaval, it’s important to continue the fight to bring down inflation. That likely will take the form of a 0.25 percentage point, or 25 basis point, increase, accompanied by assurances that there’s no pre-set path ahead.
Source: CNBC – Bonds

The Federal Reserve is one year down its rate-hiking path, and in some ways it’s both closer and further away from its goals when it first set sail. Exactly one year ago, on March 16, 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee enacted the first of what would be eight interest rate increases. The goal: to arrest a stubborn inflation wave that central bank officials spent the better part of a year dismissing as “transitory.” In the year since, inflation as measured by the consumer price index has come down some, from an 8.5% annual rate then to 6% now and trending lower. While that’s progress, it still leaves the Fed well short of its 2% goal. “The Fed will acknowledge that they were late to the game, that inflation has been more persistent than they were expecting. So they probably should have tightened sooner,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. “That being said, given the fact the Fed has tightened as aggressively as they have, the economy is still very good.”

Source: CNBC – Bonds