The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to its lowest since December after a weaker-than-expected jobs report for last month added to fears that economic growth is slowing. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was last at 3.853%, down 12 basis points, or 0.12%. Earlier, yields hit a low of 3.79%, the lowest level since December 2023. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.966% after dropping more than 19 basis points. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%, or one one-hundredth of a percent. Treasury yields tumbled after the July nonfarm payrolls report showed an increase of 114,000 jobs last month, far less than expected the 185,000 that economists had expected, according to the last survey by Dow Jones. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years, since October 2021. The cooler labor market data — first-time claims for weekly unemployment benefits jumped to 249,000 on Thursday, and continuing claims rose to their highest since late 2021 — has investors concerned the Federal Reserve should have acted sooner to head off a possible recession. Earlier in the week, the central bank kept rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, sending Treasury yields lower. “The Fed will need to go into economic protection mode moving forward to calm markets,” wrote Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments. “We should see rate cuts shortly.” Markets are now pricing in a 58.5% likelihood of a half percentage point rate cut in September, up from only a 22% chance one day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Source: CNBC – Bonds
