While respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey expect no additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, they have fully embraced its “higher-for-longer” mantra to the point where no rate cuts are expected until the third quarter of 2024. The 31 respondents, including economists, strategists, and analysts, believe the Fed is now on hold into September of next year, when 57% expect a rate cut. As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. … The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank’s benchmark for short-term lending costs. It’s now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cut. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. A basis point equals 0.01%.
Source: CNBC – Bonds
