U.S. central bankers have unambiguously telegraphed this week’s policy decision: a quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase in their benchmark interest rate, the smallest since they kicked off their tightening cycle 10 months ago with one the same size. Less clear is whether they will continue to signal “ongoing increases” ahead for the policy rate as evidence mounts that inflation and the economy are both losing momentum. The Federal Reserve has included that phrase in every policy statement since March 2022, when officials had just started raising borrowing costs from near zero and wanted to signal there was a lot more tightening ahead. The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That’s two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be “sufficiently restrictive” to bring inflation under control. “Does the word ‘ongoing’ really capture just two more hikes? It’s a close call,” said III Capital Management’s Karim Basta. At the same time, he said, “there’s going to be some caution” about doing anything that could feed market expectations that a pause in rate hikes is imminent.
Source: Reuters
